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Renewable energy problems in Germany.

9/16/2019

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Michael Schellenberger is a pro nuclear environmentalist. He writes about the impracticality of renewables and the practicality of nuclear as an alternative. In this article in Forbes he has picked up on a report on renewable energy in Germany by McKinsey, a respected research and analysis firm. The report points out the lack of progress on CO2 reduction and the daunting problems that lie ahead for increasing German renewable energy adoption. It does not have an agenda other than analyzing the situation. The report does not advocate for alternatives. 

Reports like this should be taken seriously but In our highly politicized world the various camps will either ignore it as its conclusions  conflict with their aspirations or use it to advocate for their preferred alternative like burning fossil fuels or switching to nuclear. 

Stratosolar is different than nuclear in that it lacks an advocacy group promoting its benefits. Unfortunately for nuclear, despite significant advocacy support it has lost broad political credibility and is in decline. Stratosolar is simply solar without the problems. It should be attracting support but it lacks credibility without a working proof of practicality. Unfortunately proof of practicality needs financial support which depends on proof of practicality.  

By Edmund Kelly

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German plan to expand renewable energy

9/14/2019

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This article discusses a plan for renewables to replace planned shutdowns of German nuclear generation by 2022 and coal by 2038. The shutdowns represent about half of Germany’s electricity generation capacity. The plan is interesting in that as well as solar and wind, it includes significant storage and synthetic gas synthesis. This is an improvement over the normal situation of assuming solar and wind can be added without any impact on the overall electricity generation system. 

As I have mentioned in previous blog posts, Germany and California represent the two leading edge large economies with the most alternative energy deployment and the most ambitious plans for future deployment. It’s good to see that the issues that I discuss about increasing cost of renewables with increased deployment are starting to be addressed as the problems are becoming real. This is the first plan I have seen that actually proposes synthetic fuel for long term storage. Germany has very little sunlight in winter so seasonal storage is far more significant for them than for California. 

The scale of new additions is large and still only reflects a fraction of German electricity generation and does not cover the other two thirds of energy beyond electricity. Overall it represents an expenditure of at least $500B over about twenty years or about $25B/year. Germans, while positive on clean energy in general have become NIMBYs in particular, especially for wind and electricity transmission. It's not clear there is the political will to maintain this level of clean energy expansion. Germany has the highest cost of electricity and there is growing opposition to this high cost. Implementing this plan will raise costs significantly. 

The scale of storage and gas synthesis proposed is way too low to balance the renewable energy proposed. This would probably mean burning lots of natural gas. However, the small scale proposed is probably realistic considering the immature state of storage and synthesis technologies that are still in their infancy and not yet deployable at scale. This is far from 100% renewable electricity generation and gives some indication of the impracticality of the various proposals (like California’s) to hit 100% renewable electricity. 

Stratosolar can solve the intermittency problems and provide a much lower cost of generation. This makes it politically viable as it reduces the cost of electricity and avoids the NIMBY problems. 

By Edmund Kelly

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the renewable energy uphill climb to reduce cost

8/29/2019

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The cost of renewable energy is a complex topic much clouded by  partisan posturing. Solar and wind based electricity generation have reduced dramatically in cost and will continue to do so. It’s become standard to see quotes in mainstream media reporting on the growing commitment to 100% renewable that assume that wind and solar are already cheaper electricity generation than fossil fuel based electricity generation. While this is true for small scale deployment it is not true for 100% deployment. As always, the devil is in the details. Because the fossil fuel and renewable sides are so polarized, they both pick facts to win their case rather than trying to be objective. 

The fossil fuel advocates simply want to kill renewables so their arguments are regarded as biased. There are others who advocate CO2 free alternatives like nuclear who don’t want to kill renewables but do want to point out their flaws. Stratosolar is in a similar position. Current renewables have serious flaws that only get exposed as renewables become a bigger percentage of generation. Advocates  for renewables see these arguments as a continuation of partisan posturing and ignore them. However there are real problems but so far there are few markets where renewables have a sufficient market share to prove the case and the problems won't be accepted until the case is proven and the problems cannot be denied. 

Much of the debate is theoretical and academic with lots of assumptions. California is the closest to demonstrating the real problems with real data. The two graphs shown in a previous post are California’s electricity generation from 2000 to 2017. California is a large market with significant renewable generation. Some simple observations can be made from these two charts. Yearly generation has remained nearly constant at around 200GWh. Capacity has increased from around 55GW to around 80GW as renewables were added. This little spreadsheet below shows how these numbers result in a capacity factor of 41% in 2000 reducing to 28% in 2017. This is the predicted consequence of renewables becoming a bigger percentage. Fossil fuel plants get used less as wind and solar are used more but the fossil fuel capacity has to remain to provide backup for when the wind does not blow and the sun does not shine. Capacity has capital costs that need to be repaid. Utilities have to raise prices to cover their costs, which is what has happened in California.

                         GW GWh        GW  GWh
gen capacity     55   482,130    80    701,280
gen                          200,000             200,000
Capacity factor         41.48%             28.52%

Renewable energy can claim a low cost of generation but the system overall costs more as a result of renewable intermittency. This results in higher electricity costs. Some renewable advocates think the existing generation redundancy covers renewable intermittency but this is not the case. California’s system was balanced at 41% capacity factor in 2000. To stay at 41% they would have had to reduce fossil fuel generation as they added renewable generation. This reduced fossil fuel capacity would not have been able to supply sufficient electricity when solar and wind were not generating. 

This focus on generation does not capture all the added costs as renewable penetration grows. At the relatively low penetration levels in California renewables sometimes produce too much electricity and generation has to be curtailed. This reduces renewable capacity factor and thus increases cost of generation. Also, additional transmission was added to the grid to connect wind and solar. This is a unique added expense as this transmission is only used for wind and solar. The reduced capacity factor and this added expense has significantly raised electricity prices in California. 

California is at stage one of renewables penetration.  As they continue to add capacity the capacity factor will reduce, producing rapidly rising electricity costs. Solar is about 18% penetration today. It will max out at about 25% when overall capacity factor might get to about 20%. So even at this low level while solar generation costs will continue to fall the falling capacity factor due to increased curtailment will offset this gain.The solution to enable continued expansion is storage. This is stage 2 of renewable expansion. So far there is little storage. There are two big issues. The first is simply getting storage that works, is low enough cost and can scale rapidly. The second is the added cost of electricity as storage additions are added in lockstep with generation additions. Even as generation costs continue to fall storage costs have to be added, keeping overall cost of electricity high. Storage is expensive and unlikely to cost reduce rapidly.

This brings us to stage three of renewables expansion. Costs remain high because even with storage, fossil fuel capacity still needs to be maintained to cover long duration intermittency which occurs about 20% of the time. Fossil fuel capacity cannot be removed until a long duration storage technology is viable. The most likely candidate is synthetic fuels. As well as just getting synthetic fuel plants developed, a big impediment is the cost of synthetic fuels will depend on the cost of electricity. If electricity costs remain high then synthetic fuels will be expensive which makes electricity from synthetic fuels even more expensive.

The current emphasis on 100% renewables is not based on a sober assessment of the technologies needed to achieve that goal. It is an aspirational goal presented as something that is already feasible. The status quo is fine for the incumbent renewables but is not reducing CO2 emissions and at current rates of penetration will not reduce CO2 emissions until long past the 2050 deadline. As with many subsidized industries the industry becomes dependant and has little incentive to change. New approaches that challenge the failing status quo are needed. Stratosolar is one such approach.

​By Edmund Kelly
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Clean energy investment stagnation continues into 9th year

7/10/2019

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This year has seen a considerable upping of the efforts of the scientific community and climate activists to raise the level of concern about the increased evidence for global warming and its severe consequences if nothing is done. Politicians in many jurisdictions have responded with promises for 100% renewable energy by 2030 to 2050 and US activists are touting a “clean new deal”. Unfortunately scientists, politicians and climate activists raising the alarm and promises of 100% renewables are only words.

The deed that shows us that actual progress is being made is the level of investment in clean energy. Unfortunately, as I have covered on this blog for many years, clean energy investment has been stalled since 2011. The latest data from Bloomberg new energy finance (BNEF) for the first half of 2019 shows a significant $18B decline over the same six month period in 2018, mostly due to China, but with declines in Europe, and the USA as well. The graph above illustrates the trend with the latest 2019 BNEF data. Without two unusual very big deals worth a total $10B, one in Kuwait, and the other in Taiwan, investment would have been even lower. 

BNEF expects some rebound in China in the second half of 2019 as their new policy regime based on auctions starts to take effect. However, the reason for the new policy regime is to bring a level of control to the market and stop the previous unsustainable unconstrained growth. China’s growth has been the engine that sustained overall investment since 2011 as European investment declined and US investment stayed relatively constant. As the graph shows,Chinese investment fell in 2018 and has reduced dramatically by 39% in the first half of 2019. China is no longer the growth driver.

Going forward, the big markets in China, Europe, Japan and the US seem to be in overall decline. There is sporadic growth in the rest of the world, but insufficient to add significant growth overall. Its hard to see where the engine of future growth will come from. Growth so far has come from government support via various subsidy regimes. Worldwide these regimes have been scaled back in market after market since 2011 and as a result growth has stalled. 

If clean energy could compete without government support it would be growing. Despite the optimism of clean energy advocates its clear from the investment data that clean energy cannot compete in the real world. Advocates focus only on the cost of generation in the most optimistic of circumstances. The cost to the energy consumer includes all costs including the extra costs imposed as the system as a whole adapts to increased renewable generation. These increased costs are ignored by climate advocates who regard pointing out these costs as politically motivated to kill renewables. 

These costs start with curtailment costs for existing generation, additional transmission infrastructure costs and then renewable curtailment costs as renewables get to 15% or more. To satisfy higher renewable penetration daily storage is necessary adding significant additional cost (at least 2X). Existing fossil fuel generation cannot be retired as it is needed for the 20% of time that renewables plus storage cannot meet demand so its cost grows as it is increasingly curtailed. Eventually some long term storage probably based on fuel synthesis can replace the 20% fossil fuel energy remaining but this synthesis/generation cost is significantly higher than the fossil fuel generation capacity it replaces.

Stratosolar has no long term intermittency so as it is added, fossil fuel generation can be eliminated. It has a cheap storage and cheap generation so its overall cost as more is deployed is vastly less than today's solar will cost, even with cost reductions and is also significantly lower than fossil fuel generation. The cost advantage of StratoSolar over regular solar at high penetration may be 10X. This sound exaggerated but the overall costs beyond simple generation are very significant. 

There is no other proposed electricity generation technology that can offer the possibility of clean energy at reduced cost over fossil fuels. This includes nuclear which has significant political issues as well.

By Edmund Kelly

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Video analyzing difficulty of achieving California’s 100% renewables goal

6/1/2019

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This video from brilliant.org is a little confusing but does graphically highlight a growing awareness of the difficulties of achieving California’s aspirational goal of 100% renewable energy based electricity generation. Its basic point is that the scale of batteries required to replace natural gas is enormously expensive even at low battery prices projected for the future. It also makes the fairly obvious point that batteries are impractical to use for seasonal storage.(apparently this is not so obvious to some).

As a solution to these problems with batteries it focuses on using a more diverse pool of generation which includes large hydro and nuclear( both of which California is currently trying to eliminate). As I have discussed previously California’s closure of nuclear and unwillingness to upgrade its large hydro have totally cancelled the CO2 emissions gains from wind and solar and kept California’s CO2 emissions from electricity generation about where they were twenty years ago.

By Edmund Kelly

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German CO2 emissions reduction is stagnant

5/28/2019

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In this recent blog article I discuss how California and Germany are two large economies that have for decades had the biggest commitment to promoting clean energy in order to reduce CO2 emissions. The article focused on California’s experience but pointed out that Germany had followed a similar trajectory. The bottom line for California was that it had not reduced overall CO2 emissions for almost two decades as different constituencies within the clean energy coalition fought for reducing nuclear and big hydro rather than reducing CO2. This offset the gains from deploying wind and solar. The large California investment has significantly raised electricity prices but this has paid to satisfy agendas other than reducing CO2  emissions.

Michael Shellenberger (
whom I have cited before)  recently wrote this article on Germany’s clean energy efforts (called the energiewende) in Forbes magazine quoting extensively from this article in Der Spiegel. Der Spiegel is a center left publication generally favorable to clean energy and a believer in climate change and the threat it poses. The Der Spiegel article is highly critical of Germany’s results so far and even more critical of where they are going. CO2 emissions are stagnant and with nuclear being phased out they are more likely to rise than fall.


​German’s increasingly object to wind farms and electricity transmission lines. They don’t want nuclear and are having to replace it with coal. They do want clean energy but are increasingly reluctant to pay more as they already pay very highly for electricity. The rising political right are anti clean energy, much like Trump in America.



The details between California and Germany differ, but the broad picture of failing to reduce CO2 emissions  is the same. First, CO2 emissions reduction is not the only or even primary political agenda. Second, the reason for the stagnation in CO2 reduction going forward is simply that both economies have built as much renewables as can be sustained by current electricity networks. Germany has a higher percentage of renewables but its grid is highly integrated with its neighbours who are geographically close and can take surplus renewable energy.

Further expansion of wind and solar in both economies now relies on adding large amounts of affordable energy storage. Storage deployment is in its infancy. Given time and technological development it may reduce in cost and scale sufficiently to allow renewable energy expansion. It's not a slam dunk. Batteries seem to be the leading contender. They currently are expensive and have insufficient life for daily recycling over twenty or more years.


Even when they reduce in cost batteries are an ADDITIONAL cost on top of the cost of wind and solar. Given that wind and solar still need substantial government subsidy, adding storage will take more subsidy. Fundamentally, clean energy is a cost issue. At small scale the cost of renewables can be absorbed. As they become a significant percentage of energy the costs rise at an increasing rate as the grids have to add more and more costs to adapt. Renewable energy at the scale that California and Germany have achieved demonstrates the rising cost and the looming need for storage is demonstrating that costs will rise further. They are the canary in the mine.


Energy costs around 8% of GDP today. There is significant resistance to the energy share of GDP rising which is what significant deployment of renewables entails. There is a lot of wishful thinking about CO2 reduction, as can be seen by all the political commitments to 100% renewable energy. These goals are aspirational. None have a plan to accomplish 100% renewable energy other than hope in technological improvement. Unfortunately wishful thinking is postponing the realization that we are failing to reduce CO2 emissions and are not on a path to succeed. Solar at current costs is already stagnating and will fall behind as storage becomes necessary.


Stratosolar addresses all the cost problems of solar and can scale to be an affordable clean energy solution that reduces energy cost to less than 8% of GDP.


By Edmund Kelly
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Renewable energy investment set to decline?

5/6/2019

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In previous blog posts I have commented on the stagnant world renewable energy investment level of around $250B since 2011 and the prospect that 2019 will be more of the same. However, while the investment level has stayed in this narrow range, the generation capacity it has purchased has continued to grow, mostly due to the falling price of PV panels from China. This pattern was a source of optimism as it was expected that prices would eventually decline to where subsidies were not needed.

Now, the latest International Energy Agency data for 2018 shows overall 2018 capacity additions flat with 2017 as China reduced its 2018 capacity additions over 2017 while trying to adjust its FIT subsidy policy. Flat investment and flat capacity combined imply flat prices.

What this implies is quite negative for the renewable energy outlook going forward. As I commented previously, the lack of PV investment growth despite significant PV cost reductions was a sign that unsubsidized prices were still too high for a natural market expansion and subsidies were still required to sustain the market. The effect of China’s 2018 pull back on subsidies clearly reinforces this interpretation of dependency on subsidy. More significantly, if investment and capacity were flat in 2018 this implies that prices were stable and the era of rapid price reductions has ended, at least for now.

To summarize, prices have not reduced sufficiently to sustain a normal unsubsidized market and prices have now stabilized, thus guaranteeing that subsidies are still needed and the market size will remain subsidy limited. The question is which way are subsidies heading? All the indications from China, the US and Europe are for reduced subsidies. This implies lower investment levels and declining renewable energy capacity additions going forward.

CO2 levels continue to rise with growing fossil fuel usage. Renewable energy is not having an appreciable effect and based on stagnant to declining investment it will not have an effect. Wishful thinking needs to end and new options need to be considered. Nuclear is on the table but there is no political will, the cost would be enormous and the time to develop and ramp safe clean reactors is many decades. Given the limited options and their problems Stratosolar does not look like an outrageous candidate.

By Edmund Kelly

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China PV installs stalled

4/28/2019

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It's been almost a year since China pulled back its FIT based PV subsidy regime. As yet there is no policy replacement. As a result, China’s PV installations fell 46% to 5.2GW in QI 2019. As China has been the biggest world PV consumer this does not bode well for world PV growth in 2019. This reduced demand has affected PV manufacturers, particularly polysilicon suppliers like Wacker. China continues to support its indigenous PV manufacturers so they continue to operate at a loss with PV price reductions. In affect, China is (and has been) subsidizing low cost PV manufacturing. China’s attempt to alter its subsidy regime is an effort to bring PV manufacturing sector under some degree of control.

As I have discussed many times, overall clean energy investment has been fairly stable since 2011. 2019 is shaping up to be more of the same with overall investment probably declining.  There are many competing currents in the clean energy arena and China while committed to some level of clean energy is also strongly committed to coal and is building new coal fired generation at a rapid rate. It's also building substantial nuclear generation.

While climate change activists are ramping up the rhetoric, they are not focused on specific policies to reduce atmospheric CO2 that are politically and economically acceptable. There will be no solution to reducing CO2 emissions until realism rather than wishful thinking prevails.

Despite groundless optimism, current PV is not economically competitive with fossil fuels and as previous posts have emphasized, PV faces significant additional economic hurdles as more of it is installed. Stratosolar represents a path that could solve the mounting problems of PV.

By Edmund Kelly

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California data that shows the limits to PV penetration

2/3/2019

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Ground based PV has three distinct problems that Stratosolar solves (cost, storage, backup). It has long been our observation that these problems with PV will be ignored until they become apparent as PV market penetration grows. This NREL report has data that shows that the problems are real and not just the prognostications of naysayers.

The first problem is still cost. The NREL chart below shows the cost of utility scale PV electricity since 2010. It shows the dramatic drop in cost from around $0.15/kWh in 2010 to $0.038/kWh in 2018. However this low cost represented by the green bars is the subsidized cost. The unsubsidized cost represented by the yellow bars is about $0.06/kWh in 2018. This is still an impressive number but it is substantially higher than natural gas generation at around $0.03/kWh in 2018 as shown in the right hand graph in the following foil. PV has done very well but this data shows that it still needs subsidies now and for the foreseeable future to compete with natural gas. This contrasts with the growing optimistic press that claims that PV is cheaper than fossil fuels without subsidy. Were this true investment in PV adoption should be growing, but as previous posts have shown, PV investment is actually declining.
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When PV eventually becomes price competitive it will quickly face the next big problem. The following chart illustrates the problem that solar without storage can only supply a limited amount of electricity demand. It's common sense that solar cannot provide electricity at night, but it is not widely appreciated how little solar can provide before costs start to rise dramatically due to curtailment. Curtailment is where the electricity provided exceeds the current demand and has to be thrown away. As the chart shows, over a year there are lots of occasions where the solar electricity supply exceeds the current demand.

This chart is for California which has the highest solar market penetration in the US. It shows how with a solar penetration of around 18% of demand, solar curtailment is about 1.5% or about 10% of the solar power supplied. When power is thrown away it devalues the total wholesale price of PV. As the chart shows, the price received actually reduced more than linearly from $0.038/kWh to less than $0.020/kWh. This means that PV investments are losing money. The California utility PV capacity factor  averages around 25%. It's generally understood that the practical upper limit for PV market penetration is around the capacity factor percentage. California is now providing the evidence that curtailment is a real problem at relatively low penetration and that it is getting close to the limit of PV penetration without adding storage.

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This exposes the extension of the cost problem. Adding storage is adding cost. As the first paragraph shows, PV still has a cost disadvantage so adding storage makes this worse. This does not address the cost or availability of energy storage. The reality is that with the added burden of storage, to be competitive, PV is going to need subsidies for a long time.

When PV plus storage becomes price competitive it will face the third barrier of long duration intermittency. This requires backup to cover the 20% that cannot be provided by PV plus storage. This backup will have to be from natural gas until synthetic fuel is price competitive. This makes a 100% renewable energy solution very far in the future.
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With current PV technology, Stratosolar can generate electricity for less than $0.02/kWh without subsidy, lower than natural gas. With night-time storage from gravity or batteries for $100/kWh overall electricity can cost $0.030/kWh. Stratosolar does not need long term backup supply, so the natural gas generation can be completely replaced and generation will be 100% renewable CO2 free. This is a complete cheaper replacement for fossil fuels and no subsidies are needed.

By Edmund Kelly

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2018 continues a now eight year trend of stagnant clean energy investment

1/22/2019

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BNEF has published their latest renewable energy investment report that covers 2018. It shows little change from previous years. Overall clean energy investment has been roughly constant at about $70B/quarter for the eight years since 2011, as shown by the yellow line in the graph above. The report focuses primarily on investment and breaks the data down by geography and type of energy. Over the eight years there have been significant shifts. The main change has been Europe declining and China growing. America has been fairly constant. In 2018 China fell and Europe recovered a little mostly due to Spain. In type of energy, overall yearly investment in solar has declined by $22B/quarter over the last two years as shown in the next graph.

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Focusing on solar, 2018 investment was $130.8B and capacity installed grew to 108GW. Other analysts however don’t think that capacity installed exceeded 100GW. Either way this says that Solar PV average cost was around $1.30/W worldwide. I have covered the BNEF report in many previous blog posts. In this post from 2016  I discussed the falling cost trend in $/W. In 2010 PV average cost was about $6.40/W and in 2015 it was about $3.20/W. The 2018 average cost of $1.30/W represents an amazing  fivefold reduction since 2010. Costs are anticipated to continue falling.

Paradoxically, so far falling PV costs have resulted in increasing PV capacity but reducing PV investment. A possible explanation is that reduced costs have resulted in reduced government subsidies. The implication is that without subsidies current costs are still too high to spur growth in investment.

Taking the big picture view, current investment levels in clean energy though over $300B/y are not growing and are at least a factor of twenty too low at current costs to reduce CO2 emissions by 2050. The sustained decline in solar PV investment despite dramatic cost reduction is deeply discouraging as it is counter to the perception that solar PV is succeeding on a path to rapid and sustainable growth at a level that can reduce CO2 emissions.

From a StratoSolar perspective the dramatic PV cost reductions make Stratosolar an even more viable clean energy alternative. With PV at these lower costs, the increased utilization of Stratosolar is capable of providing electricity at amazingly low prices, well below the cheapest and dirtiest fossil fuels. No long duration intermittency from clouds and weather and the option for cheap, reliable gravity energy storage make the story even more compelling.
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By Edmund Kelly

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