StratoSolar
+1 408 821 7036
  • Home
  • Technology
    • Key Enabling Insights
    • PV Generation Platforms
    • Gravity Energy Storage
    • Communications Platform
    • Proven Technologies
    • Example Complete Energy Solution for the UK
    • Common Concerns >
      • Airspace
      • Hurricanes
      • FAQ
    • Gallery of Images >
      • Platform Shadow Videos
      • Japan Energy Solution Map
      • 2050 World Energy Sankey Diagram
      • 2050 Synthetic Fuel solution
      • 2050 Electricity solution
      • Climate Change Videos
  • Benefits
    • Low Cost Generation
    • Low Cost Energy Storage
    • Cost Reduction Roadmap
    • Sustainable and Scale-able
    • Zero Carbon
    • Energy Security
  • Contact Us
  • Blog
  • Login
    • Presentations
    • Gallery >
      • PV Documents >
        • PV Big Picture policy level document
        • PV California deployment
        • PV Japan deployment
        • PV UK deployment
        • Wind and Buoyancy Forces
  • Related Sites
  • Solve for x Videos

UK data on the real price of intermittent renewable electricity

2/23/2023

Comments

 
 It has become common for mainstream media to assert that solar and wind are the cheapest source of electricity. However if we examine the price of electricity to consumers of electricity in markets where solar and wind have become a significant source of electricity we find that the price of electricity has risen significantly in them all. Price is what matters. 

Using the narrow definition of the cost of electricity generation, commonly called the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) , wind and solar are cheap and can compete with fossil fuels in some markets. However LCOE just measures the cost of electricity where it is attached to the grid. The cost of transmission and distribution and managing a reliable electricity supply has to be added to get the consumers price of electricity. It is false advertising to consumers to focus on LCOE.

In two previous blog posts that cover the case for Germany, California and the US as a whole I discussed a simple explanation based on ample public data on electricity generation and electricity capacity. This enables a simple calculation of overall capacity factor. In capital intensive industries like electricity supply, the lower the capacity factor, the higher the price needed to fund the capital expense. 

Recently, the United Kingdom has also become a major economy that has a substantial percentage of its electricity generated from renewables, mainly wind and biofuels. Calculating the capacity factor for the UK from public data adds to the evidence of the previous three cases relating reduced capacity factor to higher electricity prices.




Picture
Picture
The graphs above show historical UK generation in TWh and Capacity in GW. Using the data for the year 2000, the capacity factor was 54%. For 2020 capacity factor was 34%.. The 2020 price was 125% of the 2010 price set to 100% and the 2000 price was 58% relative to 2000. The graph below shows the UK data of price against capacity factor. As capacity factor falls, prices rise. Falling capacity factor explains higher prices, the same as for Germany, California and the US as a whole. 
Picture
Projecting this trend forward, as more intermittent renewables are added, capacity factor will continue to fall and price will continue to rise as shown in the graph above. As wind and solar get to be a larger percentage of generation, curtailment will set in. To fix this will mean adding storage, which will also add capacity, reduce capacity factor and drive prices even higher. The UK’s experience with wind volatility would say they will always have a need for backup power. From their experience, wind can disappear for long periods and wind generation can drop more than 20 GW in less than a day. There is also significant annual and seasonal variation, much like hydro power variation with droughts in California.

The electricity price could easily double from current levels which would be around five times the price of electricity from fossil fuel generation. The UK, Germany and the US may be able to afford this, but the developing world won't. 

The biggest strategic problem with high electricity prices is how it raises the price of anything that uses significant amounts of electricity. Clean industrial processes for manufacturing commodities like steel, aluminum, copper and other metals will be uneconomic along with manufacturing clean synthetic fuels and processes like desalination. All of these are essential parts of a clean energy transition. 

Cheap clean electricity is the essential base component of a clean energy transition. This is where Stratosolar comes in. Electricity for less than that generated using fossil fuels. 

By Edmund Kelly 

http://www.stratosolar.com/blog/projecting-the-rising-cost-of-electricity-to-consumers-from-increased-generation-from-intermittent-wind-and-solar

http://www.stratosolar.com/blog/the-true-cost-of-intermittent-renewable-energy

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1032260/UK_Energy_in_Brief_2021.pdf


​
Comments

    Ed Kelly

    President of StratoSolar

    View my profile on LinkedIn

    Archives

    February 2023
    November 2022
    October 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    March 2021
    January 2021
    November 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    February 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    April 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012
    November 2012
    October 2012
    September 2012
    August 2012
    July 2012
    June 2012
    May 2012
    April 2012
    March 2012
    February 2012
    December 2011
    November 2011
    October 2011
    September 2011
    August 2011
    July 2011
    June 2011
    May 2011
    November 2010

    Categories

    All
    All Energy
    Alternative Energy
    Bill Gates
    China
    Clean Energy Investment
    Clean Energy Price
    Desalination
    Developing World
    Energy
    Energy-investment
    Energy Policy
    Germany
    Helium
    Japan Energy Pv
    Land Use
    O3b
    Pv
    PV Bubble
    Pv Subsidies
    Stratosolar
    Us Subsidies
    Wireless Communications

    RSS Feed

 © 2023 StratoSolar Inc. All rights reserved. ​618 S. 8th Street, Suite 400B, Richmond, CA 94804
Contact Us