In evaluating solutions to the limits of renewables penetration, it is important to distinguish what is real from what is research. On the real side, current Wind and Solar electricity generation are mature technologies with annual investment exceeding $250B. This represents about half the world investment in new generation. Beyond investment in generation, there is also some investment in transmission to get the electricity from the remote locations where much of it is generated to where it is needed. As with all such large scale endeavors money is only invested in proven technology, low risk projects. The technologies vying for entry to the “real” proven low risk category are offshore wind and to a lesser extent Concentrated Solar Power. Its also important to understand that current wind and solar deployment rely almost completely on fossil fuel backup generation.
Technologies that are in development and not being deployed include the following:
So getting back to the theme of limits to renewables penetration, its clear that only as the problem is becoming real, is there some focus on how the problem can be solved. We are in the very early stages of recognizing the problem. This NREL study and the more academic and theoretical Solutions Project highlight how a centralized monitoring and control system is an essential part of a solution. This, in many ways would seem a bigger problem than developing and deploying energy storage, in large part because there is a big political problem as well as a big technical problem. The NREL study only contemplates 30% penetration and relies on significant new technology not yet developed. The solutions project relies on even more technology not yet developed and is a more simplistic model that does not model an actual interconnect. These studies at least are starting to outline the problem as opposed to ignoring it as has been the attitude so far. As I have previously maintained, the problems with renewables penetration need to be accepted before alternative solutions are evaluated. At this stage all the technologies being investigated or developed are very far from significant deployment. When viewed from this perspective, StratoSolar is no farther from deployment and no more speculative than the technologies being contemplated by these investigations. StratoSolar specifically addresses the daytime intermittency, nighttime storage, long distance transmission and cost of generation that will limit the future penetration of current PV solar and wind generation. Its cost of development is low. The timeframe to deployment if proven is long before 2026. By Edmund Kelly
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Gail Tverberg wrote a recent article titled “Intermittent renewables can’t favorably transform grid electricity”. It’s a good in depth article with lots of solid data and references to back up her arguments. It is a far more comprehensive analysis than my recent posts on the topic.
The solutions to this problem all involve adding substantial energy storage and additional long distance transmission and distribution along with grid demand response changes. The combined cost of this additional (yet to be developed) infrastructure far exceeds the cost of the wind and solar generation which is already very high. This paper from Mark Jacobson et al. is a very comprehensive and imaginative analysis that shows how it might be done by 2050 within known technological constraints. It draws on deploying a wide range of new technologies and avoids reliance on battery storage. Instead it relies on energy users storing heat and cold and the generation of hydrogen from electrolysis for transportation fuel. It makes extensive use of technologies that have proven difficult and expensive, like Concentrated Solar Power with thermal storage and offshore wind power. Given the long periods that wind and solar can disappear the paper does not make it clear how this is covered. Also the geographic constraints of the UK or northern europe covered by David MacKays book are not addressed. A central problem with academic solutions is they rely on government support to prop up the costs and mandate behavior. This can work up to a point as current wind, solar and nuclear can testify. On the other hand, history can also testify to the fickle nature of government support for energy. Its hard to imagine stable government support out to 2050. This StratoSolar analysis of a 2050 energy scenario addresses the same problem. The StratoSolar solution has the benefit of not needing any changes to the grid or energy consumers. StratoSolar power plants include gravity energy storage and provide a drop in replacement for dispatchable electricity. The only decision is where to put them. They can be deployed to provide new capacity in the developing world or replace fossil fuel capacity in the developed world. Because they provide low cost electricity they don’t need government subsidy or mandates, just regulatory permission to exist. As StratoSolar electricity continues to fall in price, end users will adapt to consume it over other sources. Natural market forces will drive the adoption of the scenario. This has great advantages as it works worldwide without global political agreement. By Edmund Kelly |
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