In evaluating solutions to the limits of renewables penetration, it is important to distinguish what is real from what is research. On the real side, current Wind and Solar electricity generation are mature technologies with annual investment exceeding $250B. This represents about half the world investment in new generation. Beyond investment in generation, there is also some investment in transmission to get the electricity from the remote locations where much of it is generated to where it is needed. As with all such large scale endeavors money is only invested in proven technology, low risk projects. The technologies vying for entry to the “real” proven low risk category are offshore wind and to a lesser extent Concentrated Solar Power. Its also important to understand that current wind and solar deployment rely almost completely on fossil fuel backup generation.
Technologies that are in development and not being deployed include the following:
So getting back to the theme of limits to renewables penetration, its clear that only as the problem is becoming real, is there some focus on how the problem can be solved. We are in the very early stages of recognizing the problem. This NREL study and the more academic and theoretical Solutions Project highlight how a centralized monitoring and control system is an essential part of a solution. This, in many ways would seem a bigger problem than developing and deploying energy storage, in large part because there is a big political problem as well as a big technical problem. The NREL study only contemplates 30% penetration and relies on significant new technology not yet developed. The solutions project relies on even more technology not yet developed and is a more simplistic model that does not model an actual interconnect. These studies at least are starting to outline the problem as opposed to ignoring it as has been the attitude so far. As I have previously maintained, the problems with renewables penetration need to be accepted before alternative solutions are evaluated. At this stage all the technologies being investigated or developed are very far from significant deployment. When viewed from this perspective, StratoSolar is no farther from deployment and no more speculative than the technologies being contemplated by these investigations. StratoSolar specifically addresses the daytime intermittency, nighttime storage, long distance transmission and cost of generation that will limit the future penetration of current PV solar and wind generation. Its cost of development is low. The timeframe to deployment if proven is long before 2026. By Edmund Kelly
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