StratoSolar
+1 408 821 7036
  • Home
  • Technology
    • Key Enabling Insights
    • PV Generation Platforms
    • Gravity Energy Storage
    • Communications Platform
    • Proven Technologies
    • Example Complete Energy Solution for the UK
    • Common Concerns >
      • Airspace
      • Hurricanes
      • FAQ
    • Gallery of Images >
      • Platform Shadow Videos
      • Japan Energy Solution Map
      • 2050 World Energy Sankey Diagram
      • 2050 Synthetic Fuel solution
      • 2050 Electricity solution
      • Climate Change Videos
  • Benefits
    • Low Cost Generation
    • Low Cost Energy Storage
    • Cost Reduction Roadmap
    • Sustainable and Scale-able
    • Zero Carbon
    • Energy Security
  • Contact Us
  • Blog
  • Login
    • Presentations
    • Gallery >
      • PV Documents >
        • PV Big Picture policy level document
        • PV California deployment
        • PV Japan deployment
        • PV UK deployment
        • Wind and Buoyancy Forces
  • Related Sites
  • Solve for x Videos

Clean energy’s only purpose is to reduce CO2 emissions. It is not an end but a means to an end. This big picture tends to be lost in the noise of adversarial energy debate.

11/17/2017

Comments

 
In this blog post on 10/2/2017 I discussed the EIA’s latest 2017 world energy projection out to 2050. The EIA is America’s congressional energy information body, equivalent to the Congressional budget office (CBO) for budgetary information. The IEA (international energy agency) is a similar energy information agency with 29 country members (including the US). The IEA has a more global developed world perspective. The IEA just released their 2017 world energy outlook. It is much the same as the EIA’s outlook, but presents more future “sustainable development scenarios” that address CO2 emissions and climate change, which the EIA avoids due to contentious American politics.  As is common with such scenarios they project what could be successful without saying how to achieve that success, or what the economic impact would be. The mechanism always depends on government policy to force change. So far, governments show no appetite for change on the scale indicted by the sustainable development scenarios.

CO2 emissions grew in 2017 after several years of steadying out mostly due to burning less coal and more natural gas. So, EIA and IEA projections are for CO2 emissions to reduce, but not to a level that keeps CO2 below 450 ppm by 2050 unless there is drastic change from current trends. Meanwhile yearly CO2 emissions continue to rise, not fall.

In 2017 solar PV is set to exceed 100 GW of new installs and wind about 60GW. This represents major growth in the last few years and sounds like a lot but unfortunately is a tiny fraction of what is needed. Getting a sense of the scale of what is needed to be relevant to CO2 reduction is daunting and demoralizing for advocates of current wind and solar.

In 2012 I made a video for solve for x that showed the scale of the necessary solution. Things have not changed much except that there are five fewer years to 2050. It will take about 0.8TW to 1TW of average new clean energy electricity generation every year for thirty years. This average generation translates into 4TW to 5TW of current new wind and solar nameplate capacity. Today's 100 GW PV manufacturing capacity would need to scale by 40X to 50X. Current utility scale solar is around $1/W, rooftop is over $2/W. If utility cost halves to $0.50/W that is $2T/y to $2.5T/y. This is about 10X current clean energy yearly investment. This is also not counting storage, backup or transmission costs. Allowing for more cost reduction brings cost into the $1.5T/y current total spent on energy.

As my last blog post discusses, clean energy investment has been stalled at about $250B for the last seven years. About half of this is government subsidies. Government policies are determining the current investment level. To get to sustainable clean energy growth it must become market driven growth. Energy is a commodity. Price determines demand. Instead of 4TW to 5TW Stratosolar only needs 1.2TW to 1.5TW each year, or $0.6T to $0.8T each year. The key point is that this is at a fraction of the cost of electricity from fossil fuels without needing any government subsidy. Electricity at $0.01/kWh to $0.02/kWh without any strings or hidden costs will simply replace fossil fuels at a rapid pace driven by market forces and high profits driving investment.

As is common with energy discussions, it is easy to get lost in the weeds. The only reason for clean energy is to reduce CO2 emissions. Wind and solar are not an end in themselves. They are a means to the end of reducing CO2 emissions. If they are not on a path to reducing CO2 they are failing their purpose, no matter how successful they are as businesses.  Stratosolar is a logical progression that takes today's solar PV from failing to reduce global CO2 to succeeding in reducing global CO2. That is a big deal and worthy of some attention.

By Edmund Kelly
Comments
comments powered by Disqus

    Ed Kelly

    President of StratoSolar

    View my profile on LinkedIn

    Archives

    February 2023
    November 2022
    October 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    March 2021
    January 2021
    November 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    February 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    April 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012
    November 2012
    October 2012
    September 2012
    August 2012
    July 2012
    June 2012
    May 2012
    April 2012
    March 2012
    February 2012
    December 2011
    November 2011
    October 2011
    September 2011
    August 2011
    July 2011
    June 2011
    May 2011
    November 2010

    Categories

    All
    All Energy
    Alternative Energy
    Bill Gates
    China
    Clean Energy Investment
    Clean Energy Price
    Desalination
    Developing World
    Energy
    Energy-investment
    Energy Policy
    Germany
    Helium
    Japan Energy Pv
    Land Use
    O3b
    Pv
    PV Bubble
    Pv Subsidies
    Stratosolar
    Us Subsidies
    Wireless Communications

    RSS Feed

 © 2023 StratoSolar Inc. All rights reserved. ​618 S. 8th Street, Suite 400B, Richmond, CA 94804
Contact Us