more data on PV manufacturing capacity decline

GTM research has published a report that puts 2012 PV panel manufacturing capacity at near 60GWp and demand at 30GWp.  The forecast is for 21GWp of capacity to be closed over the next few years. Based on the retrenchments in Europe especially in Germany and Italy its hard to see a 2012 demand of 30GWp without very optimistic forecasts for other markets like China, Japan India and the US, so things are probably worse than these forecasts. 

The report does forecast that low cost Chinese producers will be able to manufacture panels at below $0.50/Wp by 2015, and with supply in balance with demand these should sell for less than $1.00/Wp. This lines up with my previous blog posts.  

Business as usual will not see PV contributing much to overall energy demand for a long time. Maybe its time to think about investing in possibilities that could succeed?