There has been a series of recent articles that paint a picture of the improving state of the PV business. This article highlights that China is starting to deal with the zombie 2nd tier companies. The first tier like Jinko, Trina, Canadian, Sun Edison are pretty strong. This Jinko report shows them profitable with panel ASPs of $0.63/W in China. This matches well with $0.75/W in the US and Europe. China is lower cost because it has cheaper financing and cheaper labor. Also there is starting to be life in the Polysilicon market as polysilcon price has rebounded from $15/kg to $20/kg, with several new factories being announced by REC in China and GTAT in Malaysia.
China is the key. As European demand collapsed last year, China's new subsidies for local deployment provided the foundation for their PV panel makers and confidence for future stability. However if prices stay stable at current levels, more subsidy will be needed to grow the market. Projects in the US are profitable with current subsidies and apparently there is enough investor confidence in solar to support projects with IRRs below 10%. Projects in Texas have been bid at PPAs of $0.05/kWh based on low financing costs and current subsidies.
Chinese panel makers are becoming project developers as a means to ensure a market for their panels, following the example of US panel manufacturers First Solar and Sunpower that have successfully used this strategy to survive with uncompetitive panels.
Overall PV growth projections seem to hinge on new markets in the developing world. Panel prices should stabilize at current levels of around $0.75/W, or even rise over the next few years as the industry returns to profitability.
This is all good news, but does not paint a picture where the PV market is likely to grow to the level needed to make a significant impact on CO2 emissions any time soon.
By Edmund Kelly
China is the key. As European demand collapsed last year, China's new subsidies for local deployment provided the foundation for their PV panel makers and confidence for future stability. However if prices stay stable at current levels, more subsidy will be needed to grow the market. Projects in the US are profitable with current subsidies and apparently there is enough investor confidence in solar to support projects with IRRs below 10%. Projects in Texas have been bid at PPAs of $0.05/kWh based on low financing costs and current subsidies.
Chinese panel makers are becoming project developers as a means to ensure a market for their panels, following the example of US panel manufacturers First Solar and Sunpower that have successfully used this strategy to survive with uncompetitive panels.
Overall PV growth projections seem to hinge on new markets in the developing world. Panel prices should stabilize at current levels of around $0.75/W, or even rise over the next few years as the industry returns to profitability.
This is all good news, but does not paint a picture where the PV market is likely to grow to the level needed to make a significant impact on CO2 emissions any time soon.
By Edmund Kelly
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