Just a brief post that backs up previous posts on PV prices ticking up as the market stabilizes. This link is about GTM's near term PV price predictions. GTM publishes market research on the PV business. They are usually bullish and over optimistic.
This is good news for the PV business, as it means that it is finally getting to a more healthy footing after several years of disarray. This is mostly because China decided to support it's PV investments by subsidizing local demand within China. It will be interesting to see how far this goes, and also it will be interesting to see how long the recent surge in Japan lasts, now that they are adopting far more limited and realistically achievable CO2 emissions reduction goals.
The deeper reality is that PV panels at these prices produce electricity that is still too expensive without subsidy in almost all markets. What is called grid parity for rooftop solar is now achievable in a few markets, but this is only because retail electricity is an overpriced monopoly in those markets.
Solar with current subsidy levels is a stable business, but its not likely to grow to a size that will have an impact on CO2 emissions reduction. Hopefully the failure of over optimistic projections of PV price reductions based on short term extrapolations will sober up the eternal optimists and get some sense back into discussions of viable and realistic ways to reduce CO2 emissions. I doubt it.
Published By Edmund Kelly
This is good news for the PV business, as it means that it is finally getting to a more healthy footing after several years of disarray. This is mostly because China decided to support it's PV investments by subsidizing local demand within China. It will be interesting to see how far this goes, and also it will be interesting to see how long the recent surge in Japan lasts, now that they are adopting far more limited and realistically achievable CO2 emissions reduction goals.
The deeper reality is that PV panels at these prices produce electricity that is still too expensive without subsidy in almost all markets. What is called grid parity for rooftop solar is now achievable in a few markets, but this is only because retail electricity is an overpriced monopoly in those markets.
Solar with current subsidy levels is a stable business, but its not likely to grow to a size that will have an impact on CO2 emissions reduction. Hopefully the failure of over optimistic projections of PV price reductions based on short term extrapolations will sober up the eternal optimists and get some sense back into discussions of viable and realistic ways to reduce CO2 emissions. I doubt it.
Published By Edmund Kelly
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